(originally published in The Sun 5Dec24)
Only time will tell if the new political movement that swept Donald Trump into office is sustainable. Based on exit polling, Trump’s victory was secured with the help of a coalition of traditional and non-traditional Republican supporters — including a historic number of Latino voters. If Trump manages to hold this group together over the next four years, he could achieve something that has eluded far more capable politicians for over a century: He could establish a third national political party that rivals the other two.
But, it won’t be easy.
First, Trump will need to find a way to lock down the support of the Latino voters who pushed him over the line. Unintentionally, President Joe Biden may have given Trump a way to do just that. The election proved two things that politicos have been saying about Latino voters for decades: They should not be judged as a political monolith, and, for the majority of them, the economy outranks all other issues. Indeed, by supporting Trump despite his racist remarks against them and their families, Latino voters showed that little is more important to them than the promise of a strong economy. As much as it pains me to suggest it, one thing Trump might do to keep their support is to take credit for Biden’s economic policy successes. As the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah illustrated, Trump is not above taking credit for other people’s achievements.
In January, Trump will inherit an economy on the upswing with falling inflation, low unemployment and impressive GDP growth — and that’s even before Biden’s signature economic policies take full effect. Rivaling FDR and LBJ levels of government investment, the Biden administration is breathlessly pushing hundreds of billions of federal dollars out the door for building projects, road and bridge repair, semiconductor production and transitioning the country to non-carbon-producing energy sources. To increase the odds for success, Biden “GOP-proofed” the spending by channeling it to largely red districts — hoping Republican leaders will lack the political will to oppose money that is directly benefiting their constituents.
President Biden’s investment in infrastructure and manufacturing is so massive that if Vice President Kamala Harris had won — and retained Biden’s programs, and they had been successful — Biden could claim credit for a revival and reshaping of the industrial capacity of the United States not seen since, perhaps, the days of Franklin Roosevelt.
Biden’s economic achievements on behalf of working-class families over the past four years were remarkable — even historic. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act were created to pump trillions of dollars into the economy in communities that need it most.
Ironically, the spending is designed to target the suffering heartland of the country, where Trump’s supporters live, growing “from the middle out,” as economist Heather Boushey put it.
One reason the average American knows so little about these programs is that Harris chose not to run on the administration’s record of accomplishments during her campaign for president. Biden’s approval ratings were low, and Harris was being pressed to show how her policies as president would differ from his. As a Democrat, I hate the idea of bragging rights for Biden’s potentially historic achievements going to Trump, but it may just happen. If this election revealed anything about the American people, it’s that we have short memories.
Perhaps Trump will keep his word, and follow through on his threats to repeal Biden’s economic policies. In a move seemingly in that direction, he recently announced the appointments of his supporters Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to head a new Department of Government Efficiency dedicated to slashing government spending. In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on the subject, Musk and Ramaswamy shared their intentions to cut trillions in spending from the federal budget as part of a larger strategy to reduce government regulations.
Now that the GOP, through the Supreme Court, has succeeded in overturning the Chevron deference — putting at risk federal protections for consumers, food and medicine safety, and the environment — all pro-business Republicans needed was for someone to come in and actively slash regulations, or, at the very least, weaken the government’s capacity to enforce and make new ones. They couldn’t have found a more willing partnership for the task in Ramaswamy and Musk, whose particular aversion to government regulations has been well publicized.
If Trump does act to repeal Biden’s economic policies, he risks thwarting the potential economic growth that attracted voters to him in the first place. For the sake of the country, I hope Trump keeps Biden’s policies in place — even if he’s only doing it to hold his fragile coalition of supporters together. President Biden may not get the credit, but we will all benefit. And, I know that’s what Joe would want.